Ensembles of climate change models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Climate change affects technical Systems, Structures and Infrastructures (SSIs), changing the environmental context for which SSI were originally designed. In order to prevent any risk growth beyond acceptable levels, the climate change effects must be accounted for into risk assessment models. Climate models can provide future climate data, such as air temperature and pressure. However, the reliability of climate models is a major concern due to the uncertainty in the temperature and pressure future projections. In this work, we consider five climate change models (individually unable to accurately provide historical recorded temperatures and, thus, also future projections), and ensemble their projections for integration in a probabilistic safety assessment, conditional on climate projections. As case study, we consider the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of two AP1000 Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Results provided by the different ensembles are compared. Finally, a risk-based classification approach is performed to identify critical future temperatures, which may lead to PCCS risks beyond acceptable levels

Towards Resilience to Nuclear Accidents:Financing Nuclear Liabilities via Catastrophe Risk Bonds

In light of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, recent discussion has focused on finding the best nuclear storage options, maximizing the oversight power of global institutions, and strengthening safety measures. In addition to these, the development of dependable liability coverage that can be tapped in an emergency is also needed and should be considered thoughtfully. To succeed, financing is essential using special-purpose instruments from the global bond market, which is as big as US$175 trillion. Thus, in this paper, for the first time, a two-coverage-type trigger nuclear catastrophe (N-CAT) risk bond for potentially supplementing the covering of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) beyond the coverage per the Price Anderson Act as amended, and potentially other plants are proposed and designed worldwide. The N-CAT peril is categorized by three risk layers: incident, accident, and major accident. The pricing formula is derived by using a semi-Markovian dependence structure in continuous time. A numerical application illustrates the main findings of the paper.</jats:p

Demonstration of lightweight gamma spectrometry systems in urban environments

Urban areas present highly complex radiation environments; with small scale features resulting from different construction materials, topographic effects and potential anthropogenic inputs from past industrial activity or other sources. Mapping of the radiation fields in urban areas allows a detailed assessment of exposure pathways for the people who live and work there, as well as locating discrete sources of activity that may warrant removal to mitigate dose to the general public. These areas also present access difficulties for radiometric mapping using vehicles or aircraft. A lightweight portable gamma spectrometry system has been used to survey sites in the vicinity of Glasgow to demonstrate the possibilities of radiometric mapping of urban areas, and to investigate the complex radiometric features such areas present. Variations in natural activity due to construction materials have been described, the presence of 137Cs used to identify relatively undisturbed ground, and a previously unknown NORM feature identified. The effect of topographic enclosure on measurements of activity concentration has been quantified. The portable system is compared with the outputs that might be expected from larger vehicular or airborne systems. For large areas airborne surveys are the most cost effective approach, but provide limited spatial resolution, vehicular surveys can provide sparse exploratory data rapidly or detailed mapping of open areas where off-road access is possible. Backpack systems are ideally suited to detailed surveys of small areas, especially where vehicular access is difficult

Security risk assessment and protection in the chemical and process industry

This article describes a security risk assessment and protection methodology that was developed for use in the chemical- and process industry in Belgium. The approach of the method follows a risk-based approach that follows desing principles for chemical safety. That approach is beneficial for workers in the chemical industry because they recognize the steps in this model from familiar safety models .The model combines the rings-of-protection approach with generic security practices including: management and procedures, security technology (e.g. CCTV, fences, and access control), and human interactions (pro-active as well as re-active). The method is illustrated in a case-study where a practical protection plan was developed for an existing chemical company. This chapter demonstrates that the method is useful for similar chemical- and process industrial activities far beyond the Belgian borders, as well as for cross-industrial security protection. This chapter offers an insight into how the chemical sector protects itself on the one hand, and an insight into how security risk management can be practiced on the other hand

An Integrated Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach for Evaluating Nuclear Fuel Cycle Systems for Long-term Sustainability on the Basis of an Equilibrium Model: Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation, and Multiattribute Utility Theory Combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process

The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-making method analyses via the analytic hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory methods. This comparative study is aimed at screening and ranking the three selected NFC options against five aspects: sustainability, environmental friendliness, economics, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility. The selected fuel cycle options include pressurized water reactor (PWR) once-through cycle, PWR mixed oxide cycle, or pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle. A sensitivity analysis was performed to prove the robustness of the results and explore the influence of criteria on the obtained ranking. As a result of the comparative analysis, the pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle is determined to be the most competitive option among the NFC scenarios.ope

Moving radiation protection on from the limitations of empirical concentration ratios

Radionuclide activity concentrations in food crops and wildlife are most often predicted using empirical concentration ratios (CRs). The CR approach is simple to apply and some data exist with which to parameterise models. However, the parameter is highly variable leading to considerable uncertainty in predictions. Furthermore, for both crops and wildlife we have no, or few, data for many radionuclides and realistically, we are never going to have specific data for every radionuclide - wildlife/crop combination. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using residual maximum likelihood (REML) fitting of a linear mixed effects model; the model output is an estimate of the rank-order of relative values. This methodology gives a less uncertain approach than the CR approach, as it takes into account the effect of site; it also gives a scientifically based extrapolation approach. We demonstrate the approach using the examples of Cs for plants and Pb for terrestrial wildlife. This is the first published application of the REML approach to terrestrial wildlife (previous applications being limited to the consideration of plants). The model presented gives reasonable predictions for a blind test dataset

Electricity portfolio innovation for energy security: the case of carbon constrained China

China’s energy sector is under pressure to achieve secure and affordable supply and a clear decarbonisation path. We examine the longitudinal trajectory of the Chinese electricity supply security and model the near future supply security based on the 12th 5 year plan. Our deterministic approach combines Shannon-Wiener, Herfindahl-Hirschman and electricity import dependence indices for supply security appraisal. We find that electricity portfolio innovation allows China to provide secure energy supply despite increasing import dependence. It is argued that long-term aggressive deployment of renewable energy will unblock China’s coal-biased technological lock-in and increase supply security in all fronts. However, reduced supply diversity in China during the 1990s will not recover until after 2020s due to the long-term coal lock-in that can threaten to hold China’s back from realising its full potential

Assessing the impact of a food supplement on the nutritional status and body composition of HIV-infected Zambian women on ARVs

Background Zambia is a sub-Saharan country with one of the highest prevalence rates of HIV, currently estimated at 14%. Poor nutritional status due to both protein-energy and micronutrient malnutrition has worsened this situation. In an attempt to address this combined problem, the government has instigated a number of strategies, including the provision of antiretroviral (ARV) treatment coupled with the promotion of good nutrition. High-energy protein supplement (HEPS) is particularly promoted; however, the impact of this food supplement on the nutritional status of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) beyond weight gain has not been assessed. Techniques for the assessment of nutritional status utilising objective measures of body composition are not commonly available in Zambia. The aim of this study is therefore to assess the impact of a food supplement on nutritional status using a comprehensive anthropometric protocol including measures of skinfold thickness and circumferences, plus the criterion deuterium dilution technique to assess total body water (TBW) and derive fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM). Methods/Design This community-based controlled and longitudinal study aims to recruit 200 HIV-infected females commencing ARV treatment at two clinics in Lusaka, Zambia. Data will be collected at four time points: baseline, 4-month, 8-month and 12-month follow-up visits. Outcome measures to be assessed include body height and weight, body mass index (BMI), body composition, CD4, viral load and micronutrient status. Discussion This protocol describes a study that will provide a longitudinal assessment of the impact of a food supplement on the nutritional status of HIV-infected females initiating ARVs using a range of anthropometric and body composition assessment techniques